Steve has been covering North American
thoroughbred racing for more than three
decades. He is a regular contributor to
Daily Racing Form's Simulcast Weekly. His
column will appear on Bodog.com in
this space each week.
Arlington Million Day Dominated by Foreign Invaders
Previews of Del Mar's Pacific Classic and Saratoga's Alabama Stakes
A Column by Steve Davidowitz
August 15, 2007
The scratching of probable favorite
After Market due to relatively soft turf
conditions at Arlington Park left the
$1 million Arlington Million (G1) without
a formidable American-based contender.
Yes, last year's winner, 9-year-old The
Tin Man, ran gallantly and just failed
to hold off the Canadian-based longshot
Jambalaya in the final strides, but the
race failed to deliver a world-class
performance or a horse to move forward
to the $3 million Breeders' Cup Turf
(G1) at Monmouth Park on October 27th.
While I wouldn't discount The Tin Man's
chances to run as well or stronger on
a firm, tight-turning 7-furlong turf
course when the 1 1/2-mile Breeders'
Cup Turf is contested, I have to believe
that the strength of that important world-class
race will come from European horses we
didn't see in the Million.
Moreover, there is no guarantee that
the Monmouth course will be favorable
to the pace-setting and/or pace-pressing
tactics that The Tin Man employs so fondly.
October 27th isn't exactly the heat of
the summer and quite a few rainstorms
tend to find their way to the eastern
seaboard during the fall when temperatures
regularly descend to the mid-50's, sometimes
considerably lower. Europeans horses
are familiar with such conditions.
While the final clocking of the Million
was a very moderate 2:04.79, the Beyer
Speed Figure of 104 reflected compensation
for the course rating about three full
seconds slower than normal. In fact,
the going was soft enough to discourage
trainer John Sherriffs, who took After
Market out of the race following his
personal inspection of conditions during
the morning.
In the $750,000 Beverly D., the Grade
1 event for fillies and mares contested
over the same turf at 1 3/16 miles, Irridescence,
a European import by way of South Africa,
looked like a sure winner in the upper
stretch after tracking a relatively fast
pace. The pace was set as expected by
the overmatched locally based Jennie
R., whose presence hurt the chances of
pre-race favorite Citronnade, also as
expected. But that was as far as anyone's
expectations carried forth as the well-supported
Honey Ryder didn't handle the soft conditions
one whit and Irridescence was surprisingly
caught from behind in deep stretch by
the Christophe Clement-trained Royal
Highness. Fact is, the top two finishers
were the two most impressive performers
on the Million Day card.
Clement, an extraordinary horseman who
has specialized in winning graded turf
stakes at the highest levels of American
competition - especially with fillies
and mares - was merely doing what he
has so many times in recent years, springing
an upset with a perfectly trained horse
that he prepared quietly in New York.
That is basically what he did with Royal
Highness, who began her career in Europe
and has steadily improved this year under
Clement's care.
At the bottom line, both of the first
two finishers in the Beverly D. came
out of Million Day with solid credentials
for the $2 million Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare
Turf (G1) on October 27th. Both Royal
Highness and Irridescence earned Beyer
Speed figures of 108, among the top turf
figures - male or female - seen this
year. Moreover, both acted as if they
could have gone another 1/4 mile beyond
the finish line without either gaining
a significant advantage. In other words,
both should be kept high on anyone's
list of logical Breeders' Cup contenders,
regardless of course conditions at Monmouth.
The $400,000 Secretariat Stakes (G1)
for 3-year-olds at the Million distance
of 10 furlongs was a virtual carbon copy
of the Million. The final time was 2:04.02
and earned a 104 Beyer Speed Figure.
All things considered, the Secretariat
was probably the most formful of the
three races.
Going into this 1 1/4-mile event, there
did not seem to be a true Grade 1 American
horse in the field. Coming out of the
contest, there was at least one American
and two Europeans who gained in stature.
Rallying from the back of the pack under
French-born jockey Julien Leparoux, the
French-based Shamdinan caught up to a
surging Red Giant and edged past that
rival in a very good battle down the
stretch. Although Shamdinan was a deserving
winner, Red Giant is improving at such
a noticeable pace for trainer Todd Pletcher
that there is some doubt whether the
result will be the same when and if these
two meet again at any distance from 1
1/4 to 1 1/2 miles. Meanwhile another
European, Admiralofthefleet, finished
fourth after encountering enough trouble
on the turn and in the upper stretch
to suggest that he too could be a serious
factor in similar competition.
What was also noteworthy about the Secretariat
vs. the Million was the fact that the
winner of the Million earned a Beyer
Speed Figure of 103, while Shamdinan
earned a 104. The negligible difference
reinforces the notion that the Million
was weaker than anticipated and the Secretariat
was a few lengths stronger. At the very
least, that is the direction in which
the older and younger turf horses who
ran at Arlington on Saturday seem to
be moving.
At Saratoga, the big story was the scratching
of veteran Breeders' Cup performer Better
Talk Now from the $500,000 Sword Dancer
(G1) at 1 1/2 miles. This seemed to leave
the multiple Grade 1 winner English Channel
in a commanding position to dominate
the Sword Dancer. But, at Saratoga -
the track known as the "Graveyard
for Favorites" - English Channel
merely became another heavily bet favorite
to lose an important race here.
The winner was 15-1 shot Grand Couturier,
a 4-year-old English-bred son of Grand
Lodge, who took his time acclimating
to American racing after running third
in the Sword Dancer as a 3-year-old in
2006.
Trained by the competent, low-profile
horseman Robert Ribaudo, Grand Couturier
tracked a relatively fast pace of 1:11.37
set by Trippi's Storm and benefited from
a patented inside ride by Calvin (bo-rail)
Borel to take command in mid-stretch.
Grand Couturier certainly looked more
than a one-horse wonder, coming through
with a strong burst of speed, leaving
the odds-on favorite three lengths back
in second.
The clocking of 2:26.59 on a relatively
firm course earned a Beyer Speed Figure
of 104, which matched the figure earned
by Shamdinan in the Secretariat on the
softer Arlington turf course.
At the bottom line, as stated at the
top, the male turf horses who competed
in the rich Grade 1 turf stakes at Arlington
and Saratoga might be contenders for
the Breeders' Cup Turf, but their performances
on August 11th suggest they will be quite
vulnerable to top-flight Europeans when
the actual Breeders' Cup Turf field is
assembled in two months.
Although Saratoga is carding the $600,000
Alabama Stakes (G1) on Saturday, the
Sunday card at Del Mar commands top billing
for this weekend.
Del Mar is carding a trio of graded
stakes that will provide "win-and-you're-
in" tickets to Breeders' Cup events:
* the $1 million Pacific Classic (G1)
at 1 1/4 miles, for a ticket to the $5
million Breeders' Cup Classic.
* the $300,000 Pat O'Brien Handicap at
7 furlongs, for a ticket to the $2 million
Breeders' Cup Sprint.
* the $400,000 Del Mar Mile on the turf,
for a ticket to the $2 million Breeders'
Cup Mile.
The high-class Lava Man will be seeking
to repeat his 2006 Pacific Classic victory
against a field that may include the
3-year-old Santa Anita Derby and Swaps
Stakes winner Tiago. Skittish John Sherriffs
might scratch the 3-year-old however,
because he has misgivings about the Polytrack
racing surface that has caused some California-based
horsemen to wonder if they are training
on the same track in the morning as they
are running on in the afternoon.
"Times are much faster in the morning," said
Sheriffs. "The track loosens up
quite a bit in the afternoon when the
morning dew burns off. If it were up
to me, I'd put some water on the track
to keep the track tighter in the afternoons."
Should Sherriffs decide against running
Tiago, he will go with A.P. Xcellent.
There is likely to be a full field of
14, pending late defections later in
the week.
Other probables include veteran Southern
California-based stakes performers Albertus
Maximus, Arson Squad, Awesome Gem, Big
Booster, Hello Sunday, Lava Man, Molengao,
Porfido, Salty Humor, Student Council,
Sun Boat, and Time Squared. The trio
of 3-year-olds in this field - Tiago,
Albertus Maximus and Time Squared - will
carry 117 pounds, while the older horses
will carry 124 apiece.
The Pat O'Brien is expected to include
2005 winner Greg's Gold, who was a sharp
second to In Summation in Del Mar's Grade
1 Bing Crosby Handicap at 6 furlongs
over the Del Mar surface on July 29th,
plus Bilo and Surf Cat, the 1-2 finishers
in Hollywood Park's Grade 1 Triple Bend
Handicap on July 7th at 7 furlongs. Two
others likely to compete in this traditional
Del Mar sprint are Publication, stretch
running winner of an allowance race on
July 25th at Del Mar, and Soul City Slew,
who will be turning back in distance
after finishing seventh in the Grade
2 San Diego Handicap at 1 1/16 miles
four weeks ago.
At Saratoga on Saturday, August 18th,
Rags to Riches will be in the barn, as
trainer Todd Pletcher will instead send
out multiple Grade 1 winning Octave as
the probable favorite in the $600,000
Alabama Stakes (G 1) at 1 1/4 miles for
3-year-old fillies. Without Rags to Riches,
who is being reserved for the $300,000
Ruffian (G1) against older fillies and
mares at Belmont Park on September 8th,
the Alabama will be just another race
to see which filly ranks a distant second
to the filly that impressively out-gamed
Preakness winner Curlin in the 1 1/2-mile
Belmont Stakes.
According to Pletcher, Rags to Riches
will be using the Ruffian as a prep race
for the $2 million Breeders' Cup Distaff,
at nine furlongs around two turns, on
October 27th. While Pletcher left the
door open to a possible start in the
$5 million Breeders' Cup Classic, he
already has the 4-year-old Lawyer Ron
and the 3-year-old Any Given Saturday
pointing for America's richest race.
Next Week: Analysis of the Del Mar graded
stakes and the Alabama at Saratoga, plus
a preview of the $1 million Travers,
starring the Kentucky Derby winner Street
Sense.
Please Note: Steve Davidowitz will be
at Saratoga from August 17th through
to August 26th writing his columns for
Bodog.com. He also will have five book
signings scheduled during that period
for his bestselling new bookThe Best
and Worst of Thoroughbred Racing. For
his complete Saratoga book signing schedule,
please see Daily Racing Form.
Steve Davidowitz has been covering major
American stakes for more than three decades.
He is the author of the seminal handicapping
book, Betting Thoroughbreds (Dutton/Plume),
first published in 1977 and substantially
expanded and updated in 1997. Steve is
also a regular contributor to Daily Racing
Form's Simulcast Weekly and DRF Plus
and is the author of the recently released,
highly acclaimed book, The Best and Worst
of Thoroughbred Racing (DRF Press), a
collection of historical lists and essays
about every facet of the American racing
game. His columns will appear on Bodog.com
in this space each week.
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