Bet on Horse Racing - Saturday July 28

National horse racing handicapper Michael Dempsey will attempt to pad his bankroll and yours with his column. He will feature at least one Pick 4 play from a major track along with coverage of major stakes races, longshots, and will keep you up to date on what is happening on the circuits he covers. Don't miss Wednesday's report where Michael will keep you up to date with track bias reports for the major circuits.

It's a big day at Saratoga Saturday, featuring four graded stakes races. All four will be televised on ABC starting at 4:00 ET.

The highlight is the Grade 1 $750,000 Whitney Handicap. A field of 12 will go to the post in an outstanding betting race.

Also on the card is the 69th running of the Grade 1, $500,000 Diana for fillies and mares at nine furlongs on the turf (seventh race, 4:12 p.m.); the 23rd renewal of the Grade 2, $250,000 Alfred G. Vanderbilt at six furlongs (eighth race, 4:43 p.m) and the 54th edition of the Grade 1, $250,000 Go for Wand for fillies and mares at nine furlongs (ninth race, 5:15 p.m).

The four graded stakes races Saturday are part of the Breeders’ Cup Challenge, a “Win and You’re In” format, meaning the winners will automatically earn a ticket to the Breeders’ Cup World Thoroughbred Championships at Monmouth Park in their respective divisions.

It's a great sequence of four races with the Whitney a wide open finale to the Pick 4. We'll invest $48 today.

Late Pick 4 Play: Races 7-10

The play: $1: 3,4 / 5,8 / 4,5 / 1,2,6,7,9,11 = $48

SAR Race 7 Diana S. G1 (4:12 et)

#3 Magnificent Song, #4 Makderah

#3 Magnificent Song is coming off a runner up finish in the G3 Mint Julep, chasing a loose on the lead Quite a Bride. The winner came back to finish third in the G3 Locust Grove in her next outing on 7/8. There is some rain in the forecast and this gal has run pretty well over ground with some give to it. She won the G1 garden City over "good" ground and took the G3 Lake George over yielding footing. She looks primed for a good effort here in her third start of her current form cycle.

#4 Makderah was a good looking winner last out in the G2 New York, drawing clear to win by four lengths. Effort was flattered when runner up Masseuse came back to win the G2 Dancing Smartly at Woodbine on 7/22. She has looked better with each start since coming to the US and landing with McLaughlin. She will be a major threat in here but her price may end up on the short side.

SAR Race 8 Alfred G. Vanderbilt Hcp G2 (4:43 et)

#5 Diabolical, #8 Simon Pure

#5 Diabolical makes his first start since winning the G3 MD Sprint Championship at Pimlico. Colt has earned speed figs in four of his last five starts that are a good fit here. Owns a solid pace profile throughout and should get a good trip sitting just off what likely is going to be a lively early pace. Pino in to ride and he does not leave the comforts of home too often to travel to New York. Colt is a perfect 2 for 2 on wet tracks.

#8 Simon Pure was a good looking winner last out against Alw-2 company when coming back off a seven month layoff, drawing clear to win by four lengths in good time. Gets a class test here stepping into G2 company off that win. The cut back to six panels is a concern but this guy may be flying late if the early speed starts to wilt. Will likely need top his career best fig which he earned last out to be in the mix here. Things could set up for him and the price will be right.

SAR Race 9 Go for Wand Hcp G1 (5:15 et)

#4 Teammate, #5 Ginger Punch

#4 Teammate was beaten 22 lengths last out in the G1 Phi's and it's tough to back a horses that was beaten so badly but we'll hope Jerkens has another one up his sleeve here as he often does at the Spa. She is the lone speed in here and may have things her own way on the front here which would make her a danger. One of her best efforts came over the surface here last year when she finished a game second in the G1 Alabama, unable to hold off Pine island in the late going. She has a strong off track pedigree although 0 for 2 on wet tracks. Her last outing was just too bad to believe, we'll look for a turn around here.

#5 Ginger Punch was a much the best winner last out in the G2 First Flight after missing winning the G1 Phi's two back in a photo. She has only missed landing in the exacta once in her ten race career, that was in the maiden ranks over a sloppy main track at Keeneland back in '06. Her last pair of speed figs are tops in here. She will be tough to beat as long as Bejarano does not let our top pick get loose early.

SAR Race 10 Whitney Hcp G1 (5:46 et)

#9 Diamond Stripes, #11 Lawyer Ron, #6 Sun King, #1 Flashy Bull, #2 Papi Chullo, #7 Magna Graduate
Has there been a deeper, more wide open Grade 1 race for the handicap division in the past couple of years? I'm going to go with #9 Diamond Stripes and we should see a fair price on this gelding, who is making just his sixth career start. Has won 4 of 5 career starts, his first loss coming last out when third in the G1 Foster ‘Cap. Raced five wide down the backstretch last out and made a good middle move to get into the mix. Came out and bumped with Magna Graduate in deep stretch, ending up beaten by a half length for the top spot. The gelding has won all three races in New York including beating Alw-1 company over the main track here last September in impressive fashion. Gelding makes his third start of his current form cycle for Dutrow barn and Edgar sticks. Looks to be sitting on a career top effort here and likely will need it to get the top spot here.

#11 Lawyer Ron has shown improvement since coming to the Pletcher barn, the top trainer is sending out three in here, and Johnny V. sticks on this guy. Could not catch a loose on the lead gate to wire winner last out in the G3 Salvatore Mile and will appreciate the extra furlong here. Checked in third two back in the G1 Met Mile in a decent effort. The runner up in the race was Political Force, who came back to win the G1 Suburban in his next outing on 6/30. Colt is 2 for 3 at today's distance.

#6 Sun King also exits the Met Mile. Stalked the early pace while down along the inside and was not a threat in fourth place finish. The Zito runner produced a career top speed fig last summer here when coming up nose short of beating Invasor in this race. Five year old makes his third start the bench and should see a sharp early pace to run at in here.

#1 Flashy Bull lost nine races in a row after breaking his maiden but has won four straight and comes in here in the best form of his career. Had a clear lead heading for home in the G1 Stephen Foster and held on to win by a head over #7 Magna Graduate. Not sure this guy is going to offer much value for the top spot, and looks like he could regress off his last pair of wins.

Live Longshots:

These are price plays to watch today. A small win-place wager is in order or if your pockets are deep enough, use these runners in your trifecta and Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers. One or two of these could be the difference between a regular day at the track and hitting the IRS window with a signer.

SAR R2: #3 Wynn in Command 8/1

SAR R2: #4 War Pass 12/1

SAR R3: #3 Kettle Hill 10/1

SAR R3: #5 Giant Chieftan 8/1

SAR R4: #4 Irish Brian 8/1

SAR R5: 12 Red Hot Poker 10/1

SAR R5: #7 Mike's Dream Team 12/1

SAR R6: #2 It's a Magical 15/1

SAR R7: #3 Magnificent Song 8/1

SAR R7: #2 Meribel 15/1

SAR R8: #8 Simon Pure 15/1

SAR R10: #6 Sun King 12/1

SAR R11: #1 Mor Chances 10/1

SAR R11: #8 Golden Caesar 10/1

Good luck padding your bankroll today!

MikeD

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Posted on 7/27/2007 8:02:55 PM
Bet on Horse Racing - Saturday July 28
By Michael Dempsey

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