Del Mar Handicapping

Steve has been covering North American thoroughbred racing for more than three decades. He is a regular contributor to Daily Racing Form's Simulcast Weekly. His column will appear on Bodog.com in this space each week.

A Handicapping Primer For Del Mar By The Sea

Early Trends on the Polytrack, Plus Trainers and Jockeys to Watch

A Column by Steve Davidowitz
July 25, 2007

Del Mar, California. I spent the first week of racing at Del Mar, one of America's most beautiful racetracks. Built in the 1930s by Bing Crosby and his Hollywood friends, Del Mar's charm stems from extraordinary Spanish-inspired architecture and the Pacific Ocean, which is barely 500 yards away.

As if I needed an excuse to be here, I came to get a firsthand glimpse of the new synthetic Polytrack surface, as well as to see the most improved turf horse in America who is going to run next in the Arlington Million on August 11.

While odds-on favorite After Market was a dazzling winner of the $400,000 Eddie Read Handicap (G1) at nine furlongs and public favorites were winning at their customary 33 percent rate on Polytrack, thousands of Del Mar horseplayers were seen with question marks burrowed in the furrowed brows of their foreheads.

As in: What in the blazes is going on here???

And/or: How did THAT horse beat such a good field at 65-1 when he couldn't handle much cheaper in his last six starts???

Polytrack is confusing to American horseplayers because the vast majority of dirt performers either improve dramatically or run much slower on it than on traditional dirt.

Beyond that little problem, there doesn't seem to be any correlation between horse performance and different brands of synthetic track - such as the Cushion Track that was in play at Hollywood Park, or even the version of Polytrack used by Keeneland and/or Turfway Park in Kentucky, Woodbine in Canada and Arlington Park in Chicago.

If anything, the only positive correlation I saw at Del Mar was the way that turf horses seemed to adapt well to the new surface, just as they have adapted to other synthetic surfaces.

The reason for this may be linked to the 'kickback' factor, and I'm not referring to any private payoffs being kicked back from one horse owner or jockey to another.

The kickback of soil on a dirt track can be quite a nasty experience for horses caught in the middle of a dense pack. Kickbacks can even resemble flying missiles aimed at the faces of trailing horses. If truth be told, most jockeys don't enjoy being hit with one of these dirt clods either.

On plain grass, there is very little kickback - none in fact - unless you count the divots that come fitted with soft tufts of grass that invariably lessen the impact on contact. On synthetic Polytrack - and/or its various cousins - there are divots, but they inevitably come apart into thousand of specks of harmless powder. Poof, it's gone with the wind.

Another noticeable characteristic of synthetic track racing is that it takes a supremely fit racehorse to win over it.

While some might call the surface "tiring," that doesn't explain the number of front runners and pace pressers who were winning the majority of Del Mar's sprint races during the first six racing days through Monday July 21. Nor will it explain why Polytrack races beyond one mile were being won by the strongest finishers in the field.

As I saw it, the sprinters that were winning on or near the pace had either gained strong conditioning via their most recent races and workouts, especially longer workouts, or races in which they came up a bit short and were now fit and ready to move forward in their initial Del Mar race. The stretch-running winners at one mile or more also seemed to share some common denominators: They had proven good form at longer distances and/or an extended series of long workouts.

Because the race clockings tended to be at least one full second slower per class level than traditional dirt tracks, I would expect horses that come out to race over the Polytrack early in the meet will improve significantly in their second and third outings on this synthetic surface. I also expect more turf horses to jump into Polytrack races with some success.

In addition to that overview, I would give an extra long look at horses from the barns of trainers who got off to a very quick start in this meet. This would suggest extra preparation that is paying off. Yet, I would also include a few trainers who aren't listed among the top10.

Del Mar trainer standings during the first six days of racing:

* Peter Miller, a low-profile, high percentage horseman, won with four of his first six Del Mar starters, all of whom trained 100 miles from Del Mar.

* Vladimir Cerin's entire barn looked good in training drills and my guess is that he will probably win a high percentage of his second- and third-time starters over the course.

* Brian Koriner, who isn't on the above list, has pointed for this meeting where he did so well in 2006. Koriner did win a maiden sprint with Barbecue Eddie on Saturday, July 21 after giving that horse a prep race at Hollywood prior to the start of this meeting.

* Bob Baffert isn't on the above list either, after being the Del Mar meet leader many different seasons during the past dozen years. Baffert's precocious two-year-olds, however, seemed more advanced than they were at Hollywood Park.

* Doug O'Neill, who has a poor win percentage so far, nevertheless is showing signs of coming out of a long slump with aggressive training drills at longer than usual distances.

As for players who prefer to follow jockeys, I would take a very close look at any horses being ridden by Joe Talamo, Michael Baze, Corey Nakatani, Victor Espinoza and the young apprentice Alonso Quinonez.

Del Mar jockey standings during the first six days of racing:

* Joseph Talamo, no longer an apprentice, struggled a bit the first few days, but put it all together late in the first week. At the bottom line, he is one of the most polished teenage riders I have seen since Steve Cauthen in the 1970s.

* Michael Baze, in his early 20's, is one of the most versatile, most complete young jockeys in America. He can handle any type of horse at any distance on any surface and already won his first two Grade 1 stakes and was in perfect synch with the Polytrack surface during week one.

* Corey Nakatani and Victor Espinoza, who are just a cut below the Hall of Fame level, have patient riding styles which plays well on the Polytrack as well as on the turf.

* Alonso Quinonez, an apprentice who challenged Julien Leparoux for the riding title at Turfway Park in Kentucky this year, has already scored on a pair of extreme longshots at Del Mar. Quinonez does lack turf racing experience, but he seems to be a quick study who can make all the needed adjustments within a few weeks.

Next week's column will be a similar handicapping primer on Saratoga racing, which opens its 139th race meet on Wednesday, July 25 for 36 racing dates through Labor Day, September 3. Saratoga will have at least one stakes race every day and will offer more than $770,000 in daily purses. Del Mar, which opened Wednesday, July 16, will offer 43 racing dates through Wednesday, September 5 and purses are projected to approach Saratoga's daily average.

Steve Davidowitz has been covering major American stakes for more than three decades. He is the author of the seminal handicapping book, Betting Thoroughbreds (Dutton/Plume), first published in 1977 and substantially expanded and updated in 1997. Steve is also a regular contributor to Daily Racing Form's Simulcast Weekly and DRF Plus and is the author of the recently released, highly acclaimed book, The Best and Worst of Thoroughbred Racing (DRF Press), a collection of historical lists and essays about every facet of the American racing game. His columns will appear on Bodog.com in this space each week.

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