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Experience Is The Best Teacher
Often times
in life you must go through something in
order to understand it, and we gain knowledge
in different ways. We gain it from books,
or by doing something, known as experience.
Horses learn basically the same way, except
they don’t read books. They learn
through first-hand knowledge and therefore,
after they get a race over a new surface,
they are all eligible to improve.
That theory will be well tested this meeting
at Del Mar and it is a theory that should
be employed big time by players. It just
makes common sense.
Watching the races the first several day
of Del Mar this year it became quite apparent
that some horses are not comfortable on
the Polytrack. Some have appeared super
tentative, and even experienced warriors
were running like green two-year-olds.
This performance has every right to improve
with the race over the surface. The next
time these same horses taste the Polytrack,
whether it will be in the a.m. or in an
actual race, they will know what to expect
and therefore should run better.
What this means to the bettor is to not
put 100% stock in that first Polytrack
outing. It just isn’t the cure all
about how a runner will take to the surface.
Some facts need to be examined now and
first let’s look at the Cushion results
at Hollypark.
On July 11 Gorby was coming off his Cushion
debut in which he was 7th when steadied.
He went on to win in that second Cushion
start paying 3-1 under Richard Migliore.
In the very next race the winner was Celtic
Way. He had debuted on the Cushion in May
and was a press and fade 5th. He won his
next race on the Cushion overcoming the
rail post, then repeated to make it two
for three on the Cushion Track.
This phenomenon is not just for the Cushion
either. Consider the result at Arlington
Park this meet.
On July 11 in Chicago Broad Spectrum was
making his second start on the local Polytrack,
was coming off a poor effort but was debuting
for a 40% trainer. Those factors help to
make the 2nd synthetic run in the Windy
City a successful one and fans were on
board at even money.
In the nightcap on the same day Nicks
made her second Polytrack experience a
winning one improving her debut clocking
by a full second.
Sure, the playing field will be more even
if several runners are making that second
synthetic run, but with some other basics
of handicapping, it will be up to the bettor
to isolate which runner is the most likely
to improve the most.
Don’t fall asleep when going to
school on the Polytrack or you will flunk
the financial test.
One last word about the synthetic going
and it comes via Art Wilson in the Daily
News when he interviewed Kentucky Derby
winning conditioner John Shirreffs and
his thoughts on the synthetic going. Shirreffs: “I
have mixed feelings. This is my first year
training on one, so I haven’t really
figured it out. When I watch horses train
on them, it’s just a little different.
Synthetic surfaces are kinder to the front
end, but I don’t see horses going
out there and loving the surface. I don’t
see horses just bouncing over it and finishing
with a lot of enthusiasm. I don’t
know that it makes the sport better. It
might protect the frond end a little bit,
but I think there’s a lot more to
a horse than just the front end.”
The debate goes on.
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Posted on 7/31/2007 3:19:00 PM
Horse Betting - EXPERIENCE IS BEST TEACHER
By Brian Mulligan
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