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The first step to making winning
horseracing bets at the horse races is attempting to
solve the puzzle known as horse handicapping.
It starts with the conditions of the race.
In this instant gratification world, the
first impulse is just to dive into the
past performances but you have to know
who is eligible for a particular race to
have any sort of clue.
Conditions include the distance, purse,
age categories, and weight which qualifies
a horse for entry into a particular event.
The purse is relative to the quality of
the race. Cheap horses run for less money
than the better horses. Distance is important
as the measuring stick for getting to the
wire first. There are sprinters - who run
best at races up to a mile - and routers,
who perform best going a mile or more.
Early in their careers, horses are kept
to the same age bracket. As they mature,
they try older horses. A good barometer
of a 3-year-old crop is how they do against
older horses late in their sophomore years.
There is a scale of weights in the rules
of horseracing. It stipulates the weights
that are to be carried. This happens when
the weights are not stated in the conditions.
For instance, 2-year-olds are to carry
102 pounds going 6 furlongs in August.
Three-year-olds are to carry 122 pounds
going 1 1/4 miles the last 2 months of
their sophomore seasons.
A couple of schools of thought about weight
include an old saying, “ weight can
stop a train”. It seems to be a red
herring. Most of the professional horse
handicappers I know pay very little attention
to weight on an every day basis.
In stakes, weight can be important, as
a topweight may have to concede a rival
several pounds. A sharp unaccomplished
horse that gets in light could be a major
factor against a classy horse that must
give him 12 or 15 pounds. It’s tricky,
but on a day-to-day basis, try to put more
emphasis on other factors.
Once a handicapper understands the conditions,
he can attack the past performances. One
must try to pinpoint the speed, form, pace
style, class and consistency of each entrant.
The age-old adage “pace makes the
race” is just as true today as it
was at racing’s inception. How the
race sets up is of the utmost importance
because from there, contenders and pretenders
can be separated. By evaluating each entrant’s
style and speed, a reasonable concept of
how the race will set up starts to crystallize.
By comparing early fractions of the races
of each horse in the race in question,
a visualization or projection of where
each horse will be at each juncture of
the race can be theorized upon.
If there are 7 horses in the event and
one has superior early speed and he’s
proven at the distance, he becomes one
of the best horse bets in racing. If there
are 3 or 4 speed horses in a race that
show similar ability to pressure the 1st
fraction of a race, a horse that prefers
to make one big run from off the pace can
sometimes be in the right spot at the right
time.
A lone speed trip is a handicapper’s
dream, but the key is to discover the lone
speed BEFORE the race.
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Posted on 8/22/2007 6:55:42 PM
Horse Betting – How to Spot Winning Horses
By Brian Mulligan
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