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All good things end and for bettors it
may be time to wager that the good times
for Lava Man will end in Sunday’s
Pacific Classic.
First off, he will be overbet as usual
as he is a true people’s horse. Second,
he didn’t scare anybody off in the
draw for the field - as a ton of horses
will try to knock him off his pedestal.
Third, he did pass his synthetic debut
on the Cushion Track winning the Hollywood
Gold Cup but this Polytrack at Del Mar
is an entire different animal.
Fourth, he did prevail last time but was
life and death to reach the winner’s
circle - you really don’t quite know
how much that took out of him.
Fifth, and foremost, he will be zero value
and if you take a swing and bet against
him you will get paid.
There are plenty of runners that could
pull off the upset, but like beating Tiger
Woods, it’s always easier said than
done.
Take a look at the A group that will line
up against Da Man. We are talking about
A. P. Xcellent, Albertus Maximus, Arson
Squad and Awesome Gem.
Xcellent was out for exercise on the wrong
surface 18 days ago but that race could
set him up for the smasher. He has the
speed to take it to the chalk from the
sound of the bell.
Maximus is a nice horse, but he is a sophomore
taking on older horses and though he is
talented, he will have to run the race
of his life.
Arson is a multiple Grade 2 winner but
his Polytrack debut leaves much to be desired
while Gem is improving and ran well on
this new beach surface, but he will need
the exact kind of trip to get there.
Big Booster will be a price and he’s
interesting. He still has conditions left
but was getting to the winner in the Gold
Cup and will be flying.
Hello Sunday will try to say Hi to his
trainer Bobby Frankel in the winner’s
circle but the Group 3 winner gets the
acid test here. He will have to improve
in leaps and bounds off his local win to
get his picture taken.
The other Frankel, Porfido, has yet to
win in the states and will be a huge number.
Molengao blinked when looking Lava Man
in the eye in March but has the perfect
style for this racetrack.
Salty Humor just lacks the killer instinct
and this is a far cry from beating up on
non-winners of 2 other than Golden Gate
rivals.
Mike Mitchell will try to sail for the
wire with Sun Boat and this guy can run.
The reformed claimer has a devastating
late kick and he’s proven on the
Poly.
The other sophomores in the field, Tiago
and Time Squared, are talented but will
be going from the frying pan to the fire
this weekend. Tiago validated his Belmont
Stakes third with the Swaps win while Time
Squared cost a million dollars but has
only won two races - he had no apparent
excuse in the recent Chicago loss.
Here is how the race will shake out. Lava
Man, will the bulls eye in full view on
his back, will be forwardly placed from
the get go but he will be pushed every
step of the way by A. P. Xcellent.
That, in effect, will take its toll at
crunch time and Xcellent will also pay
the price.
At the top of the lane that pair will
be wilting from banging heads for a mile
and then the wave of horses will appear
at the top of the lane.
They will include Big Booster, Molengao
and Sun Boat. Inside the 16th pole Molengao
will engage the leading pair and quickly
scoot away and be life and death to hold
off Sun Boat. Rank outsider Time Squared
completes the trifecta and the era of Lava
Man will be just a memory.
With Lava Man out of the gimmick equation,
those that bet right Sunday will be sipping
margaritas for the rest of the meet for
free.
Good luck.
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Posted on 8/16/2007
7:00:27 PM
Horse Betting - Pacific Classic
By Brian Mulligan
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