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After the performance commercials are
aired and after all the re-financing spots
are view on TV, the secrets of staying
young with Spa-like products are always
prominent on the tube so listen up here
and try to get an edge on the Spa Bettor
Beauty Tips this season.
Besides the beautiful views - both human
and equine - and the great classic racing,
Saratoga offers handicappers a number of
difficult things to examine on a day-to-day
basis. First and foremost is the weather.
And we know the weather will come. It
can ruin a grass schedule quicker than
you can say flash thunderstorm and just
like on the dirt track, all turf courses
can play differently when they get some
moisture seeping in.
First don’t bet off Belmont form,
this is a whole new animal. And when they
wheel out those 2-year-olds to race on
grass, absolutely refuse to succumb to
betting the favorite and just look for
a well-bet youngster that is flying under
the radar and shoot for the moon.
Saratoga has been called many things including
the Graveyard of Favorites, and you better
pay strict attention to that last moniker
before eating chalk this meeting.
A player really has to focus on where
the winners are coming from at this abbreviated
stand and if there is a potential bias.
Things change here and they change quickly.
If you wait too long, the bias may be over
or the entire grandstand may be on to the
intricacies of the bias.
A good horse handicapper must also try
to identify key races before they become
super obvious. One of the tools to help
with that task is the Beyer Pars that are
published in DRF Simulcast Weekly. Check
them out and compare the early winners
of the meet to what is happening right
now. Also pay attention to races where
the trifecta players are spread out. If
it came on a glib surface, it can be a
sign of a powerful race.
Just like at most other venues, speed
is extremely potent going short on dirt
and you can go wire-to-wire going long
on dirt under the right circumstance.
On the grass, it can pretty much be pick
a number at the top of the lane. The fields
will be competitive, with comebackers,
Europeans and shippers mixed in with the
usual suspects coming up from Belmont.
One thing to pay attention to is the main
track only runners. They will be designated
in the Racing Form as such and will be
in the outside slots generally. If the
rains come, and grass races are taken off
the sod, these horses are prime time contenders.
First off the race will be losing quite
a bit of luster as the top bred grass runners
are gone and the fields will be in all
likelihood short and sweet and compact.
Even with all the regally-bred maidens
that have been positioned to debut at Saratoga,
the experienced runners could offer the
best value. They have a race or two under
the belt and are more accustomed to what
could shake them up at race day.
Don’t be scared to take shots with
comebackers at this meet. All the pretty
people have likely instructed-their well-paid
conditioners to save some live runners
for this meet. Nothing can be finer than
to take a nice little contingent down to
the winner’s circle before dinner
and drinks at the newly renovated Fortunes
restaurant.
As far as the humans are concerned, the
same trainers will dominate. These of course
are the Bill Motts, the Todd Pletchers,
and the Nick Zitos of the world.
Those four were in the top ten in the
standings last year with Pletcher leading
the league and winning the title by a dozen
over Richard Dutrow.
Don’t be shocked if a pocket of
little known barns pop and pop at some
prices. A trend to consider is the fact
that Bob Klesaris was 6-for-20 last year,
Bruce Levine saddled 33 horses and watched
six happy endings, and the cagey Christophe
Clement sent out 40 runners and nine got
the money.
No reason to figure Edgar Prado will not
again walk away with the riding title.
He was four ahead of Garrett Gomez last
year and topped one of the best colonys
anywhere at any time. The break out rider
for the meeting last year was Julien Leparoux.
He finished 5th in the standings and had
more mounts than everybody except two riders.
One has to be able to adapt at this meet,
so don’t get locked into a tubular
mode.
The best advice is hard work. Don’t
get caught up in the hype, look for value
as always and when you can isolate what
appears to be a false favorite, take a
swing and make believe you are Barry Bonds
without the juice.
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Posted on 7/24/2007 2:00:13 PM
Horse Racing - SARATOGA BETTING TIPS
By Brian Mulligan
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